This is hopefully a much simpler and more direct explanation of the Monty Hall Problem.
The problem as presented goes:
Behind one of three doors is a prize, and the other two have goats. Monty Hall lets you pick a door. Then, doing something odd, he reveals one of the other doors to be empty. You are then given the chance to stay with your original selection, or switch to the remaining hidden door.
Does the choice even matter?
Or is there an advantage to staying with your original choice?
Or is it better to switch?
Let’s find out…
Before you start, clearly, you have a 1 in 3 chance of winning.
In this second step, Monty shows you one of the doors you didn’t pick — as being empty. But don’t be tricked by this. What you need to focus on is one simple thing…
Really look at Step 3. That is Monty’s slices of the pie. Think of it as he owns 2/3 of any pie being bet on. You have your paltry single slice, and he has 2 slices!
A better way to word his last offer is:
Do you want to stick with your SINGLE slice, or…
Switch to ALL OF MY SLICES?
That’s it, that simple. If it is still not clear, there are much longer detailed explanations that might help, but at its core, this is all there is to it.
Give a clap below if this was helpful to you.
